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Thursday, October 11, 2012

NWC Week 7 Picks...


Pacific Lutheran vs Pacific (OR)
              (2-2)                    (2-3)

Last Week:  Pacific Luther bounced back from their loss to Linfield and pulled off a big win, beating previously undefeated Lewis & Clark 31-14.  The Lute offense had a semi-productive day statistically, putting up 436 yards of offense (273 through the air, 163 on the ground).  Dalton Richey went 19-30 for 273 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception.  Kyle Warner led the receiving core with nine receptions for 195 yards and one touchdown.  Brandon James led the ground attack with 81 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries.  Most impressively on the day, the Lutes defense held an explosive Pios offense to 264 yards and forced a season-high five turnovers.  Pacific is coming off an amazing 62-21 thrashing of Pudget Sound.  The loggers posted 526 yards of offense for the game, including 250 yards on the ground.  The points and yards were all the highest single-game totals since the Pacific football program was reinstated in 2010.  Leading the day for the Boxers was QB P.J Minaya, who went 25-30 for 276 yards and four touchdowns with zero interceptions. 

Thoughts entering the game:  On the surface, this game looks like a match-up between two of the worst offenses in the Northwest Conference.  Pacific is fifth in the conference in scoring and sixth in yards per game.  Pacific Lutheran is sixth in scoring and fifth in yards per game.  The big difference in the game comes down to defense:   Pacific Lutheran has the Number-one defense in the NWC in scoring and yards allowed per game, while Pacific is sixth in both categories.  While both teams are coming off impressive wins, and Pacific has shown tremendous growth as a football program, Pacific Lutheran has played against tougher competition and were super competitive against Linfield and Cal Lutheran, two of the top ten teams in the nation.  Pacific Lutheran is more talented on both sides of the ball.   

Winner:  Pacific Lutheran


Lewis & Clark vs Willamette
            (4-1)              (5-0)

Last Week:  Lewis & Clark is coming off the first loss of the season, a 31-14 defeat at the hands of Pacific Lutheran.  The Pio offense was held to a season-low 264 yards and committed a season-high five turnovers; their lack of offense took away all the chances the L&C defense created for the team to come back from a 17-0 deficit.  Willamette is coming off a strong showing against Whitworth, where they rallied from three first-half interceptions by Josh Dean and a 17-14 halftime deficit to win 38-24.  The offense racked up 598 yards of offense for the game, and the Bearcat defense tightened the lid on things in the second half.  Josh Dean, the top quarterback in the conference, went 23-41 for 392 yards and four touchdowns with the three interceptions.  The bearcat offense also pounded out 206 yards on the ground, led by Dylan Jones’ 131 yards on 22 carries.  Josh dean added 43 yards on 12 carries. 

Thoughts entering the game:  At this point in the season, Willamette stands as the team with the best chance to dethrone Linfield’s three-year reign of the conference.  With the number one offense in the conference at this point in the season, it’s pretty easy to see why.  Lewis & Clark brings a high-caliber offense into the game as well, but are coming off a game against PLU where they had a hard time getting anything going on that side of the ball.  While Willamette’s defense isn’t quite as strong overall as PLUs, they do lead the league in turnovers forced.  Lewis & Clark’s defense is second in the NWC in yards per game allowed, but the 73 points allowed in the last two games has dropped their scoring defense to fifth in the NWC.  Don’t be surprised if this game becomes a shoot-out. 

Winner:  Willamette          

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