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Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Linfield vs Pacific Lutheran Preview...


                     They were picked by the coaches of the Northwest Conference to finish first and second in the conference preseason poll, and now they are on a collision course at Sparks Stadium on Saturday.  Third-ranked Linfield brings their 3-0 record against Pacific Lutheran, who sits at 1-1 on the season and has 1 receiving vote in the latest top 25 poll.
                
                In last season’s match-up, Linfield turned a potential conference championship-deciding match-up with PLU into a 45-7 rout that extended Linfield’s home win streak.  Pacific Lutheran will be looking to avenge not only that loss, but their home loss to Linfield in 2010, in which their only blemish in an 8-1 campaign that ended with no postseason invitation despite finishing the season ranked 21st in the country. 
                
                Linfield brings one of the most explosive offenses in the nation into the fray, averaging 37.3 points and 456.7 yards per game, including a conference-leading 187.3 yards per game on the ground.  Mickey Inns leads the explosive passing game, having completed 54 percent of his passes for 779 yards and seven touchdowns with three interceptions.  Josh Hill leads the explosive running game with 401 yards and one touchdown on the season, averaging 6.8 yards per carry; Hill’s 133.7 yards per game on the ground is second in the conference behind Whitworth’s Ronnie Thomas.  Josh Hill also has 11 receptions for 128 yards and a team-high two touchdowns.  Wide receiver Charlie Poppen leads the team with 193 yards receiving on 11 receptions, and Lucas Jepson has 182 yards and two touchdowns on 14 receptions.  Senior Deidre Wiersma has 146 yards and a touchdown on a team-high 17 receptions.
                
                Pacific Lutheran’s defense comes into the game as one of the better defenses in the conference.  Although their 25.5 points per game allowed ranks fifth in the conference, they rank second in the conference in yards per game allowed, and they’re tied for second in the conference in turnovers forced.  After giving up 37 points and 399 yards in their loss to Cal Lutheran, Pacific Lutheran held Redlands to 14 points and 286 yards in their win. 
                
                The Pacific Lutheran offense, though still not an elite unit, has made strides from a year ago, when they had the second worst offense in the league.  The Lutes average 25.5 points and 426 yards of offense, including 314 yards per game through the air (third in the NWC).  Leading the offense is quarterback Richey Dalton, who is completing 58 percent of his passes for 622 yards and two touchdowns and two interceptions.  Wide receiver Kyle Warner has 210 yards and one touchdown on 10 receptions, while receiver Kelle Westering has 14 receptions for 203 yards.  Brandon James leads the PLU rushing attack with 157 yards and two touchdowns with a 6.0 yard per carry average. 
                
                 Linfield’s defense, though not as elite as the defensive unit from the three previous seasons, is still a unit not to be taken lightly.  The Wildcat defense gives up 24.7 points per game (third in the conference) and 404.7 yards per game (fifth in the conference).  They lead the conference in tackles for loss and sacks, and are tied for second in the conference in turnovers forced, a sign of the dominance of Linfield’s front seven.   

Keys To The Game For Linfield:

-Cut Down On Turnovers:  After having only one turnover against Menlo in the opener, Linfield had two turnovers against Hardin-Simmons and three against Cal Lutheran.  The Wildcats need to reverse this negative trend soon, or they might find themselves on the wrong end of the scoreboard at the worst time (See the Menlo & Whitworth games of 2006).

-Win The Third-Down Battles:  Considering how dominant Linfield’s offense has shown to be at times this season, it was quite a shock to the system to see Linfield’s offense having the worst third-down conversion percentage in the NWC at 35 percent (They were 45 % in 2011).  Not only that, the defense has allowed opponents to convert 38 percent of their third downs (way up from the 26 percent allowed in 2011).  If Linfield can reverse these trends, it would go a long way towards helping them regain their top form. 

-Regain Their Top Passing Form:  Last season, Mickey Inns had a 153.73 QB rating, which was tops in the conference last season.  As it stands, Inns has a QB rating of 127.03; contributing to this is the fact that Inns has already thrown three interceptions this season, compared to just seven for all of last season.  Inn’s completion percentage has also dropped from 60.5 percent to just 54 percent.  Linfield returns almost their entire receiving core from last season, so who knows why things aren’t going as smoothly.  A big day from Inns through the air will not only help get his season on track, but it would also allow Josh Hill to continue to have the success that he’s been having thus far in 2012.

Keys To The Game For Pacific Lutheran:

-Get Something Going On Offense:  In last season’s 45-7 loss to Linfield, Pacific Lutheran was held to a season-low 183 yards of offense and could only produce one touchdown in garbage time against Linfield, all of their offensive inadequacies on display.  While the Lutes look much better offensively this season, they’ll need to prove themselves against the Wildcat defense.

-Avoid Turnovers:  Last season, PLU compounded their offensive troubles against Linfield by turning the ball over four times.  In order to pull off an upset of Linfield, the Lutes will have to minimize their offensive mistakes, and not having turnovers would be a big help.

-Get Some Stops On Defense:  Last season, I thought PLU’s defense was going to give Linfield’s offense some fits; instead, the Lutes defense got ran over by the Wildcats in the form of 45 points and 460 yards of offense, which included big days by both Mickey Inns and Josh Hill.  PLU’s defense will have to have a big day on Saturday in order to have a chance of an upset.

Link to Linfield Coach Joseph Smith's Thoughts on PLU:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1CsOa-GAcLc&feature=youtu.be

Link to NWC Predictions Week 5:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoR-uyoVeUk                          

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