NWC Picks Week 10...

Willamette vs Pacific (OR)

         (6-2)              (3-4)

Last Week:  Willamette is coming off a 45-10 spanking administered to them by Linfield.  The Bearcat offense was held to a season-low 108 yards of offense, and quarterback Josh Dean was held to 13-30 for 96 yards with zero touchdowns and two interceptions, getting sacked seven times along the way.  The Bearcat defense held up strong in the first half against Linfield, but then gave up 239 yards and 35 points in the second half against the ‘Cat Attack.  Pacific is coming off an impressive 42-20 victory over Lewis & Clark on Saturday.  The Boxers offense piled up 607 yards of total offense, the highest total since the football program was reinstated in 2010.  Leading the way was Quarterback P.J Minaya, who went 21-32 for 442 yards and four touchdowns with one interception.  The Boxers defense gave up 442 yards to the Pios, but forced five turnovers for the game.      

Thoughts entering the game:  Willamette is coming off two straight losses against the top two teams in the NWC standings, and looking for someone to pound away their frustrations on.  Pacific is a team that comes in with sky-high confidence.  In NWC play, The boxers blew away Pudget Sound and Lewis & Clark while hanging tough with Whitworth and Pacific Lutheran.  Even though they lost to Willamette 51-17 earlier in the season, the Boxers have gotten a lot better since that game, and will look to knock off Willamette at home.  The thing to look at in this match-up is the battle between the top-two passing teams in the NWC; Willamette comes into the game averaging 38.2 points and 489 yards of offense on the season, ranking second and first in the conference respectively.  Josh Dean Leads the air show, completing 66 percent of his passes for 2,665 yards and 29 touchdowns with 11 interceptions on the year.  The Boxers come into the game averaging 30 points (fifth in the NWC) and 421 yards of offense per game (Third in NWC), showing major strides on that side of the ball this season.  Quarterback P.J Minaya has completed 67 percent of his passes this season for 1,848 yards and 16 touchdowns with 10 interceptions.  While Pacific has the potential to pull an upset, their defense had no answers for Willamette’s offense earlier in the season, and I see no reason why that will change.    

Winner:  Willamette

Whitworth vs Pacific Lutheran

       (6-2)              (5-2)

Last Week:  Whitworth is coming off a bye week, which was preceded by a 70-11 win over Pudget Sound.  Pacific Lutheran is coming off a 41-14 win over Pudget Sound, surviving five turnovers and a 14-7 first half deficit to eventually rout the Loggers.  On offense, the lutes racked up 387 yards, including a season-high 251 yards on the ground.  Cody Pohren gained 100 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries, while Niko Madison added 61 yards and two touchdowns on seven carries.  Quarterback Richey Dalton went 12-20 for 136 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions, and racked up 47 yards on 10 carries on the ground.  The PLU defense held the Loggers to 267 yards of offense for the game, and forced five turnovers themselves.  The only downside was that Loggers running back Austin Wagner produced 105 yards on 17 carries on the ground.      

Thoughts entering the game:  This game has major implications in terms of the Northwest conference standings:  If Pacific Lutheran wins, they’ll finish the season in second place in the conference, no matter what happens in their finale against Menlo.  If Whitworth wins, it opens the door for a three-way tie for second place between PLU, Whitworth, and Willamette.  The Whitworth offense continues to be an enigma in 2012, looking unstoppable in some games and pathetic in others; the Pirates average 34.1 points and 373.8 yards, ranking third and last in the NWC respectively.  The pirates have a big-three on offense between QB Bryan Peterson. RB Ronnie Thomas, and WR Jake DeGooyer.  Averaging 32.7 points and 393.9 yards, The Lutes feature a high-powered passing attack lead by QB Richey Dalton and WRs Kyle Warner and Kelle Westering.  The big difference in the game comes down to defense:  PLU has the second-best defense in the conference, while Whitworth’s defense tanks near the bottom of the NWC. 

Winner:  Pacific Lutheran          

Linfield vs Willamette: Instant Analysis...

When it was all over, Linfield turned a 10-7 second quarter deficit into a 45-10 rout of Willamette, effectively turning the Northwest conference game of the year into another rout.  The third-ranked Wildcats outscored the Bearcats 35-0 in the second half and racked up 239 of their 371 yards in the half, wearing out the Bearcats over the course of the game.    The win improved Linfield to 7-0 on the season, and essentially gave Linfield the Northwest Conference crown.  the loss dropped Willamette to 6-2 on the season.

What did I think of this game?

It was over when:  Linfield's defense blocked a punt and recovered the ball in the endzone to go up 24-10 with 6:07 to go in the third quarter.  That was the play that opened up the floodgates; Willamette threw an interception on their next play from scrimmage, and Mickey Inns threw a 38-yard touchdown pass on the next play to kick-start the rout.    

Gameball goes to:  Linfield's entire defense.  Josh Dean and the Bearcat offense came into the game averaging 42.3 points and 540 yards of offense per game, sporting the nation's best passing attack.  At the end of the day, Willamette was held to a season-low 10 points and 108 yards of offense.  Linfield's front seven didn't let Willamette do anything all game long.  

Stat of the game:  seven quarterback sacks.  Josh Dean had no time to throw whatsoever today, as indicated by the seven sacks he suffered.  Dean finished the game going 13-30 for 96 yards and no touchdowns with two interceptions.  

Unsung hero of the game:  Wide receiver Charlie Poppen.  Poppen has ended up becoming Linfield's top receiver in 2012, and he really put together a nice one today against Willamette, finishing with 95 yards and two touchdowns on five receptions.     

What it means:  The win essentially clinches the NWC title for Linfield in 2012.  Sure they have two games left against Pudget Sound and Pacific, but those should end up being games that are over at halftime, and the starters should be able to get plenty of rest before the playoffs.  For Willamette, the loss dropped them out of contention for the NWC title, and with their second loss in a row, all they have left to play for is the third-place spot in the NWC pecking order.  Willamette finishes the season with Pacific and Pudget Sound as well, and they have the tiebreaker over Whitworth, so third place seems very likely.      

     

Linfield vs Willamette Preview...

          It’s the game that we’ve been looking forward to all summer and season:  The game that will decide the Northwest conference champion.  Linfield has lived up to their role as the three-time defending conference champs; adding a unique twist to the game is Linfield’s challenger:  The Willamette Bearcats, who are rebounding impressively from a 4-6 season in 2011.

                

          Third-ranked Linfield comes into the game with a 6-0 record, 3-0 in conference play, and having just thrashed Lewis & Clark 63-0.  Willamette is 6-1, 2-1 in conference play, and was ranked 22nd in the nation before being upset by Pacific Lutheran 41-27 last week.  Willamette is currently unranked. 

                

          Linfield’s offense is among the most explosive in the nation, and in their last two games, they’ve been letting opposing defenses suffer their wrath.  The ‘Cat Attack is averaging 43.3 points and 468.2 yards of offense, ranking first and second in the conference respectively.  Leading the attack is Quarterback Mickey Inns, who has really turned it on of late.  Inns is completing 58.3 percent of his passes for 1,513 yards and 17 touchdowns with five interceptions on the season, giving him a passer rating of 143.09.  Charlie Poppen leads the receiving core with 371 yards and three touchdowns on 24 receptions.  Lucas Jepson has 315 yards and three touchdowns on 23 receptions.  Deidre Weirsma has 243 yards and three touchdowns on 26 receptions.  Along with their balanced receiving core, Linfield leads the conference in rushing at 176.2 yards per game, led by Josh Hill in the first three games and John Shaffer in the last three. 

                

          Willamette’s defense comes into the game as a solid unit.  The Bearcats are giving up 26.3 points and 372 yards of offense per game, both ranking third in the NWC.  Willamette’s defense is second in the NWC in turnovers forced wit 21 on the season, but they have slowed down in that department, forcing only three in the past three games.  The last impression left by the bearcat defense, however, was their inability to get Pacific Lutheran’s offense off the field on the legendary 18 play, 99 yard touchdown drive that took 9:47 off the clock in the fourth quarter.

                

          Willamette’s offense, an inconsistent bunch in 2011, has exploded onto the national scene this season as one of the nation’s best.  The Bearcats average 42.3 points and 544 yards of offense, ranking second and first in the northwest conference respectively.  Quarterback Josh Dean, a fixture on Willamette’s bench in 2011, has taken the nation by storm; Dean has completed 68.2 percent of his passes for 2,569 yards with 29 touchdowns and nine interceptions on the season, giving him a passer rating of 166.4 on the season.  Much like Linfield, the Bearcats feature a balanced receiving core.  Jake Knecht has 567 yards and 10 touchdowns on 43 receptions.  Jake Turner has 567 yards and five touchdowns on 36 receptions.  Tight end Benny Weischedel has 561 yards and five touchdowns on 34 receptions.  Not to be forgotten, Willamette averages 160 yards per game on the ground, second in the conference.  Leading the rushing attack is running back Dylan Jones, who has 644 yards and four touchdowns on the season and is averaging 4.8 yards per carry. 

                

          Linfield’s defense, a unit many people expected to take a step down this season with the graduation of their entire secondary, has turned out once again to be an outstanding unit.  On the season, the Wildcat defense gives up 18.7 points and 326.8 yards of offense per game, both first in the NWC.  The Wildcat defense also continues to lead the conference in tackles for loss and quarterback sacks.  Linfield has been especially dominant on defense in their last two games against Whitworth and Lewis & Clark, two teams not lacking in offensive firepower. 

Keys to the game for Linfield:

-Force turnovers:  Turnovers turned out to be most of Willamette’s undoing against Pacific Lutheran, especially with the way that the Lutes offense was rolling.  If Pacific Lutheran did create a blueprint for beating Willamette, it's something that Linfield’s been extremely good at the past three seasons, but not so much in 2012.     

-Establish a running game:  Linfield, the top rushing team in the conference, really needs to continue to establish themselves on the ground first like they have in their past two games.  Doing so allows Linfield’s passing attack to get going, which means absolute destruction for whatever gets in their way. 

-Capitalize on scoring chances:  In past games against really tough teams, Linfield has had trouble with finishing good drives off with scores.  PLU did a perfect job of finishing off drives against Willamette last week, and Linfield will probably need to do the same considering how explosive Willamette’s offense is. 

Keys to the game for Willamette:

-Cut down on turnovers:  Turnovers turned into the Willamette Offense’s undoing last week at PLU, and now they face the best defense in the conference in Linfield.  By not beating themselves with turnovers, the Bearcats offense, the nation’s best passing attack, might have the firepower to crack Linfield’s defense.       

-Establish running game:  Another key for PLU’s victory over Willamette last week was their inability to get Dylan Jones established on the ground; the all-conference back was held to a season-low 20 yards on 11 carries.  If Willamette is able to run the ball on Linfield, they have a real chance of winning the game. 

-Get off to a fast start:  In their past two games, Linfield has gotten off to faster starts, and their opponents have been blown away as the games wore on.  Willamette got off to a slow start against PLU last week, and paid the price for it.  Willamette needs to get off to a fast start if they want to dethrone Linfield on Saturday.

Link to Linfield Press Conference on 10/23:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbh1xEY-vLg&feature=youtu.be                     

What Did We Learn About Linfield In Week 8...

Linfield's offense is pretty special:  Turns out that when the Linfield offense doesn't hurt themselves with penalties and turnovers, they are one of the scariest offense in the nation.  Playing the no-huddle, up-tempo pace, the 'Cat attack is averaging 58.5 points and 549 yards of offense in the last two games against Whitworth and Lewis & Clark.  In that span, Mickey Inns went 41-60 for 526 yards with seven touchdowns and no interceptions, playing with the efficiency and fire that we saw from him last season.    

The Wildcat defense looks like last year's version:  Early in the season, Linfield's defense had their struggle against their non-conference competition against Hardin-Simmons and Cal Lutheran, two teams averaging around 500 yards and 40 points per game.  After going through that experience, the Wildcat defense has come alive in NWC play, holding Whitworth and L&C offenses to a combined 432 yards and 14 points.  While the Pirates and the Pioneers certainly don't have the individual talent of Cal Lutheran and Hardin-Simmons, they weren't THAT bad of offenses; Linfield's defense has really stepped up their game lately.    

The NWC title is Linfield's to lose:  After watching Linfield play in their past two games, it's become clear that they're a national title contender.  They have a tough game with Willamette coming up on Saturday, but if they get past that hurdle, They wrap up the season with Pudget Sound and Pacific, two games that should go the rout of Linfield's previous two games.  If the Wildcats beat the Bearcats, the NWC title is practically theirs.

NWC Week 9 picks...

Pacific (OR) vs Lewis & Clark

       (2-4)                 (4-3)

Last Week:  Pacific is coming off of a bye week.  Lewis & Clark is coming off a 63-0 loss to third-ranked Linfield.  The Pios offense was held to 207 yards, including 42 yards rushing on 44 carries.  QB Keith Welch went 4-16 for 50 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions.  The L&C defense also got shredded on Saturday, giving up 513 yards of offense, including 381 through the air, to the ‘Cat Attack.    

Thoughts entering the game:  These two teams are headed in opposite directions going into Saturday.  Pacific, who went 1-17 in 2010 and 2011 combined, are 2-4 on the season, and were competitive with both Whitworth and Pacific Lutheran, two of the better teams in the NWC.  Lewis & Clark started out the season 4-0 and playing as well as could be on both sides of the ball, but have had their world rocked in their past three games, getting outscored 150-34 by PLU, Willamette, and Linfield.  Statistically, the two teams look similar; Lewis & Clark’s offense s averaging 26.9 points (sixth in the NWC) and 381.9 yards (sixth in the NWC).  The Boxers offense is averaging 28 points and 390.3 yards per game, both ranking fifth in the conference.  The Pio defense gives up 35.1 points and 411.6 yards, ranking sixth and fifth in the conference respectively; the Pacific defense gives up 33 points and 411 yards of offense per game, which ranks fifth and fourth in the conference respectively.  A win for Pacific would please their fan base tremendously, while Lewis & Clark desperately needs a win to not only secure a winning season, but to regain some of the mojo that they’ve lost in their three-game losing streak.  This game can go either way.      

Winner:  Lewis & Clark

Pacific Lutheran vs Pudget Sound

                (4-2)              (0-6)

Last Week:  Pudget Sound is coming off another devastating loss, this one 70-11 to a Whitworth team that needed a real pick-me-up after losing to Willamette and Linfield back to back.  The Logger defense gave up 494 yards and 8.0 yards per play to Whitworth, allowing Ronnie Thomas to rush the ball 23 times for 122 yards and two touchdowns.  Quarterback Bryan Peterson went 11-13 for 183 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions.  The Pudget Sound offense was held to 315 yards on the day, and turned the ball over six times, including five interceptions.  Pacific Lutheran is coming off a 41-27 victory over previously undefeated and then-ranked #22 Willamette.  On defense, the Lutes gave up 440 yards, but they held Willamette running back Dylan Jones to 20 yards on 11 carries, and they forced three turnovers, including an 80-yard pick six to open the second half.  On offense, Richey Dalton had a monster game, going 16-28 for 197 yards with one touchdown and one interception, and rushed 14 times for 65 yards and three touchdowns.  The Lutes controlled the ball for 37 minutes in the game, boosted by their legendary 18 play, 99 yard touchdown drive in the fourth quarter that took 9:47 off the clock to seal the deal.      

Thoughts entering the game:  After winning in impressive fashion against Willamette last week, it’s beginning to look like Pacific Lutheran may be the second-best team in the NWC in 2012, just like the coaches predicted in the pre-season poll.  Granted, they still have tough games against Whitworth and Menlo after this, but Pudget Sound should end up getting their rear handed to them again this week as the Lutes come into town.  Pacific Lutheran’s defense once again ranks second in the conference, but it’s their improved offense that has allowed them to assert themselves in 2012.  Pacific Lutheran was the second-worst offensive team in the NWC in 2011; so far this season, the Lutes have averaged 31.3 points and 395 yards of offense per game, both ranking fourth in the NWC.  Look for Pacific Lutheran to win big.       

Winner:  Pacific Lutheran          

Linfield vs Lewis & Clark: Instant Analysis...

Third-ranked Linfield continued to roll on Saturday, thoroughly dismantling Lewis & Clark 63-0 at Griswold Stadium.  The story of the game was Linfield's defense holding the explosive Pios offense to 207 yards and the shutout.  The win pushed Linfield to 6-0 on the season, and thanks to #22 Willamette's 41-27 loss to Pacific Lutheran, Linfield now sits alone in first place in the Northwest conference.  The loss drops Lewis & Clark to 4-3 on the season; the Pios have been outscored 150-34 in their three-game losing streak.

My thoughts on the matter...

It was over when:  this game kicked off.  After watching Linfield absolutely destroy Whitworth last week, and watching Willamette blow away the Pios on the same day, you knew that Lewis & Clark had no chance to win; it was just a matter of how bad it would be.  It got pretty ugly.  

Gameball goes to:  Mickey Inns.  Playing in only the first half, Mickey Inns went 18-28 for 265 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions.  The Linfield offense on the day totaled 513 yards, and averaged 7.4 yards per play, just blowing through the Lewis & Clark defense with their blistering pace.    

Stat of the game:  Zero points allowed by the Linfield defense.  Anytime you keep the other team off the scoreboard for the game, you did a special job, especially against an explosive Lewis & Clark spread offense that came into the game third in the conference in scoring and fourth in total offense.  It's especially impressive when the third and fourth-string defense played the entire second half like Linfield's did.

Unsung hero of the game:  Linfield's third-string and fourth-string defensive players.  In last week's game against Whitworth, this group of defenders allowed 153 yards and 14 points in the fourth quarter, preventing Linfield from pitching the shutout.  On Saturday, despite giving up some yards, the Linfield scrubs on defense preserved the shutout.  Such an accomplishment is something that all the coaches on the Linfield staff probably appreciate greatly.

What it means:  For Linfield not only once again showed that they're the team to beat in the Northwest conference, but established themselves as a legit national title contender after this game and what they did to Whitworth the previous week.  Willamette seems like the only team left on Linfield's schedule that's capable of beating them, and they just lost to PLU.  For Lewis & Clark, their third straight loss and complete failure to do anything right against Linfield has erased most of the momentum that they built up with their 4-0 start to the season.  The Pios have Pacific in their next game, and then play Whitworth after a bye week.  If Lewis & Clark can beat Pacific, they have a chance to salvage their season with a win in the Whitworth game.

Linfield vs Lewis & Clark Preview...

         Last season, the match-up between Lewis & Clark and Linfield on the final day of the regular season was the game that decided the Northwest conference championship, a game Linfield won 47-14 at Maxwell Field.  This season, Lewis & Clark comes into the game with a 4-2 record, having lost their last two games against Pacific Lutheran and Willamette by a combined score of 87-34; desperate to get a win, the Pios will look to upset the third-ranked Wildcats, who come into the game with a 5-0 record and one of the most explosive offenses in the nation.

                

         Linfield’s offense is coming off an explosive game against Whitworth, where they posted season-highs of 54 points and 585 yards of offense.  The ‘Cat Attack comes into the game averaging 39.4 points and 459.2 yards of offense, both ranking second in the NWC.  Leading the offense is all-conference quarterback Mickey Inns, who comes into the game completing 57.4 percent of his passes for 1286 yards and 15 touchdowns with five interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 139.39.  Leading the receiver core is Deidre Weirsma, who has 23 receptions for 185 yards and three touchdowns, the receptions and touchdowns leading the team.  Lucas Jepson has 20 receptions for 246 yards and two touchdowns.  Charlie Poppen has 19 receptions for a team-high 330 yards and two touchdowns, as well as an astounding 17.4 yards per reception.  The Linfield running attack comes into the game averaging 185 yards per game, which is tops in the NWC.  After Josh Hill’s season-ending injury, previously third-string running back John Shaffer has come alive in the past two games, rushing the ball 30 times for 196 yards and two touchdowns. 

                

         The Lewis & Clark defense comes into the game as a unit that gives up a lot of plays, but also makes some.  On the season, the Pios defense is giving up 30.5 points (fifth in the conference) and 394.7 yards per game (fourth in the conference), but they rank second in the NWC in quarterback sacks and turnovers forced.  However, in the last two games, the Pios defense is giving up 43.5 points and 546.5 yards per game. 

                

         While not as explosive offensively as the previous season, Lewis & Clark brings a solid offensive unit into Saturday’s game.  Running the Oregon zone-read option-based offense, the Pios average 31.3 points and 411.4 yards of offense per game, which ranks third and fourth in the NWC respectively.  The running attack has seen a major drop from last season’s productivity, averaging 130.4 yards per game on the ground.  Running back Curtis Shirey leads the Pios with 447 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 4.4 yards per carry.  The major source of offense for the offense is Quarterback Keith Welch, the defending NWC Offensive Player of the Year from 2011.  Welch on the season is completing 58.2 percent of his passes for 1,637 yards and 15 touchdowns with five interceptions; Welch also has 237 yards and seven touchdowns on the ground on the season.  His quarterback rating of 134.5 ranks fifth in the NWC. 

                

         Linfield’s defense comes into the game on a roll after some early season struggles against high-powered offenses.  The Wildcat defense leads in the conference in points per game allowed at 22.4, and they rank second in yards per game allowed at 350.8.  The Linfield defense ranks first in the Northwest conference in both quarterback sacks and tackles for loss.  Lewis & Clark has struggled on offense the past two games against the solid defenses of Willamette and PLU, and here comes the Wildcats defense.

Keys to the game for Linfield:

-limit turnovers and penalties:  In Linfield’s first four games, turnovers and penalties prevented the ‘Cat attack from putting a serious whipping on their opponents.  Against Whitworth, Linfield limited those mistakes, and put a massive beating on their defense.  If Linfield can limit those mistakes against L&C, then another offensive masterpiece should be on display. 

-win the line of scrimmage on defense:  In the Pios last two games, Pacific Lutheran and Willamette dominated Lewis & Clark offensive line, which lead to sub-par offensive performances.  If Linfield’s defense can win the battle up front and live in the Pioneer backfield like they've been doing to other teams, Linfield’s defense could be in for a big day. 

-Bring the A-game:  Linfield’s two road experiences this season were their 33-30 win over Cal Lutheran, and their 31-24 win over Pacific Lutheran, Linfield was plagued by turnovers and penalties.  While Lewis & Clark does not have the physical talent of those teams, The Wildcats have yet to be sharp on the road.  They need to be on Saturday. 

Keys to the game for Lewis & Clark:

-Put points up on the board:  While the Lewis & Clark defense has shown play-making ability at times this season, they still give up a lot of points and yards, especially in their last two games.  Lewis & Clark will need to score at least 35 points if they want to have a chance of winning this game.

-Establish the running game:  While the Pios passing game is as dangerous as they come, they’ll need to be able to generate a running game to break up the Linfield defense.  If Welch and Shirey can get the zone-read option game going like they did against Pudget Sound, Lewis & Clark may have a puncher’s chance of beating Linfield.

-Get off to a good start:  Before the Whitworth game, Linfield had been documented for their slow starts to games, especially in the first quarter.  If Lewis & Clark can get off to a fast start against Linfield, they may gain enough confidence to make plays and hang with Linfield later on when things get tough and tense.