NWC Week 11 Predictions...

Pacific Lutheran vs Menlo

       (6-2)                     (4-5)

Last week:  Pacific Lutheran is coming off an impressive 35-14 win over Whitworth; Menlo is coming off a 31-21 loss to St. Francis (IL). 

Thoughts entering the game:  These two teams come into the game going in opposite directions.  After starting out the season 1-2, with the losses coming to Cal Lutheran and Linfield, Pacific Lutheran has won five straight games, and enters the contest ranked 24th in the nation.  Menlo started out the season 4-1 and looking like a very explosive team offensively; they come in having lost four straight games, the Fly offense getting slowed to a crawl.  While this game won’t affect PLU’s second-place spot in the NWC standings, a playoff berth is at stake for the Lutes, and that may be all the motivation they need.

Prediction:  Pacific Lutheran

Willamette vs Pudget Sound

         (7-2)              (0-8)

Last Week:  Willamette is fresh off a come-from-behind win over Pacific, beating the Boxers on the road 35-31.  Pudget Sound is coming off a 47-7 loss to Third-ranked Linfield.    

Thoughts entering the game:  This game has the look of an absolute blowout, as has been the norm for UPS this season.  Willamette has the second-best offense in the conference, and UPS has arguably the worst defense in the nation.  The Loggers offense is the worst in the NWC, while the Willamette defense is a solid unit.  Don’t really see Willamette having to survive an upset bid this week.     

Winner:  Willamette

Whitworth vs Lewis & Clark

       (6-3)                (4-4)

Last Week:  Whitworth is coming off a 35-14 loss to Pacific Lutheran.  The Pirates trailed 28-0 at halftime in that game, and the Lutes were able to cruise in the second half.  The Whitworth defense was blown away all day, getting run over and passed around whenever PLU wanted to.  On offense, Whitworth was held to 294 yards of offense.  Bryan Peterson went 19-32 for 189 yards and two touchdowns with two interceptions, while Ronnie Thomas finished with 88 yards on 22 carries.  Lewis & Clark is coming off a bye week.          

Thoughts entering the game:  Both teams go into the season finale desperately seeking a win.  For whitworth, a win would help the morale of the program as they go into the offseason, as well as prove that the NWC is indeed four-deep in 2012.  For Lewis & Clark, a win is desperately needed not only to break a four-game skid, but would give the Pios consecutive winning seasons for the first time since they had three straight winning season in the years 1989-1991.  Lewis & Clark has one of the best QBs in the conference in Keith Welch, but Whitworth has the triune of Bryan Peterson, Ronnie Thomas, and Jake DeGooyer.  This game could be a good one, but the Pios are really on the downswing. 

Winner:  Whitworth         

What We Learned About Linfield in Week 10...

The offense still has some kinks to work out:  In the first half against Pudget Sound, the Wildcats totaled 346 yards of offense.  However, for all their trips into the red zone, Linfield came away with only one touchdown, two field goals, a missed field goal, and a lost fumble against a Logger defense that can’t stop anybody.  Things must have gotten fixed at halftime, because Linfield opened up the second half with five straight touchdowns on five possessions, putting the game to rest.  The red zone is something the wildcats need to be great at come playoff time, and their struggles with UPS are not a good sign.

The passing game is explosive:  The Linfield passing attack showed some struggles in the first four games of the season, where they faced their toughest defensive challenges.  In the past four games, Linfield’s offense has found their rhythm, averaging 52.3 points and 540.3 yards of offense per game.  Leading the way is Mickey Inns, who during this span has completed 65.4 percent of his passes for 294.3 yards per game, throwing for 13 touchdowns and no interceptions.  Linfield’s passing game has fully recovered their 2011 form, and seems ready to take things to the next level.  

The defense never rests:  While Linfield’s offense struggled to put points up on the board in the first half, the Wildcat defense completely derailed the Logger offense from the opening kickoff, giving them no hope of pulling off an upset despite the crowd’s reactions throughout the first half.  In the past four games, Linfield’s defense has given up 7.8 points and 189.5 yards.  It’s safe to say that the Wildcat defense has recovered their bone-crushing form that they had in the first seven games of 2011.  

'Cat's Toss Loggers 47-7...

          For a half, things were not going as planned. 

          Linfield’s offense was moving the ball up and down the field at will, but they had trouble putting the ball in the endzone against a Pudget Sound defense that was arguably the weakest defense in the nation.  

          The Loggers offense failed to put anything together, but with the Linfield offenses’ first-half struggles, there was a lot of hope in the Pudget Sound fan base, dreams of a legendary upset dancing in their heads.

          By the end of the third quarter, hopes were dashed, spirits broken, and the game unofficially over.

          “We had a hard time putting points on the board for a variety of reasons early, but we were able to move the ball with great regularity; just didn't put it in the end zone,” Linfield coach Joseph Smith said, “That was disappointing, but I sure loved how our defense played, and I don’t think the game was really ever in question.”

          The third-ranked Linfield Wildcats defeated the Pudget Sound Loggers 47-7 on Saturday afternoon, extending their conference winning streak to 25 games while the Loggers losing streak reached 17 games.  The win pushed Linfield to 8-0 on the season, 5-0 in conference play.  The loss dropped the Loggers to 0-8 on the year, 0-5 in NWC play. 

          The ‘Cat Attack, despite early red zone struggles, rolled to a big day on offense, ending the afternoon with 692 yards of offense, including a school-record 541 yards passing as a team.  Mickey Inns had a monster day, going 27-39 for 422 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions.  Back-up quarterback Josh Yoder went 5-8 for 119 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions   Deidre Weirsma led all receivers with eight receptions for a career-high 133 yards and two touchdowns.  Charlie Poppen added 88 yards and a touchdown on five receptions.  Westley Mang added 74 yards on three receptions.  Stephen Nasca lead the team with 56 yards rushing on nine carries.

          “It’s great for those guys,” Smith said in regards to the school-record passing yardage.  “There was 12 receivers or something, and that’s a group honor to be able to do that as a team.”

          Pudget Sound’s offense came into the game as the worst offensive unit in the Northwest conference, and they lived up to the part, getting held to 218 yards of offense and the lone touchdown.  Quarterback Braden Foley went 13-25 for 169 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions.  All-American wide receiver Adam Kniffin had eight receptions for 75 yards.  Running back Austin Wagner led all rushers with 66 yards and one touchdown on 13 carries.

          “The offenses that we’ve face have gotten progressively worse in some regards, so our defense has gotten better relegated to who we’re playing, but we’re playing at a high level,” Smith said.  “They’re playing together nicely, and the back row is doing a tremendous job of taking away quarterback’s first options, making him hold onto it, and then the front row gets ‘em.”

          After forcing the Loggers offense to punt on their first possession, the Wildcats went 64 yards in 11 plays, capped by a 32-yard field goal by Josh Kay to make the score 3-0 Linfield with 10:53 to go in the first quarter.  In the second quarter, Shaffer added a 1-yard touchdown run to make the score 10-0 with 10:03 to go in the quarter, capping an eight-play, 74 yard drive.  After forcing a Pudget Sound punt, the Wildcats went 70 yards in nine plays, capped by a 27-yard field goal by Kay to make the score 13-0 with 4:42 left in the quarter.

          “We just had a lot of things go wrong at different times,” said Smith about Linfield’s first half struggles in the redzone, “we had some missed signals, we had some poor play-calls by myself, we had some missed passes, we had some touchdowns called back, and we had some penalties down in there.  I don’t think it’s anything that UPS did; it was just little mistakes that we made, everybody taking turns making a little mistake here and there.”

          First possession of the second half, Linfield drove the ball 55 yards in seven plays, capped by a 9-yard touchdown pass from Inns to Weirsma to make it 20-0 with 12:31 to go in the third quarter.  After forcing a Loggers punt, the Wildcats went 55 yards on seven plays, capped by a 28 yard touchdown pass from Inns to Poppen to make it 27-0 with 8:28 to go in the quarter.  After another Logger drive ended in a punt, Linfield drove 80 yards in eight plays, ending with a 23-yard touchdown pass from Inns to Weirsma, making it 34-0 with 2:48 to go in the quarter.

          Yoder threw a 29-yard touchdown pass to Evan Peterson to make it 41-0 Linfield with 14:23 to go in the fourth quarter.  The Loggers countered with a nine play, 64 yard drive, ending with a 19 yard touchdown run by Wagner to make it 41-7 with 10:00 to go.  Yoder threw a 19-yard touchdown pass to Derek Priestly with 7:53 to go to make it 47-7.

          Linfield’s next game is at their regular season and home-finale against Pacific, who is coming off a 35-31 loss to the Willamette Bearcats.  Linfield defeated the Boxers 49-6 at field last season.

          Pudget Sound’s final game is against the Willamette Bearcats, who are coming off the close win over the Pacific Boxers.          

Link to Instant Analysis:  http://wildcatspread40.blogspot.com/2012/11/linfield-vs-pudget-sound-instant.html  

Link to Boxscore:  http://www.linfield.edu/sports/stats/fb/ups1103.htm

Linfield vs Pudget Sound: Instant Analysis...

Third-ranked Linfield overcame a first half full of sloppy execution in the red zone to beat Pudget Sound 47-7, smacking them down like the worst team in the conference that they were.  Linfield’s offense totaled 692 yards on the day, while the defense was stout as usual, allowing only 218 yards for the game, most of which came in the fourth quarter.  The win improved the Wildcats to 8-0 on the season, and moved the wildcats to one away from clinching their third undefeated regular season in four years.  The loss dropped Pudget Sound to 0-8 on the season, extending their losing streak to 18 games. 

My thoughts on the game…

It was over when: The second half kicked off.  After dinking around in the red zone in the first half, the Wildcats found their killer instinct in the third quarter, scoring three touchdowns on all three possessions.        

Gameball goes to:  Quarterback Mickey Inns.  With the loggers loading up against Linfield’s ground game, Inns took to the air in a big way.  Inns went 27-39 for a career-high 422 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. 

Stat of the game:  692 yards of offense and 36 first downs.  While Linfield’s offense struggled in the red zone in the first half, they were repeatedly getting there.  By the third quarter, the logger defense fell apart from exhaustion, and Linfield ran away with the game.

Unsung hero of the game:  Wide receiver Deidre Weirsma.  Weirsma quietly had a masterful game, catching eight passes for 133 yards and two touchdowns.  Weirsma’s yardage was a career-high as well.

What it means:  The win continues Linfield’s recent domination of their opponents, having outscored them 209-31 in the past four games.  If Linfield finishes off an undefeated season next week against Pacific, they could potentially secure the #1 seed in the West region bracket for the NCAA playoffs.  For Pudget Sound, their prolonged futility continues, and with Willamette as their season finale, a second consecutive 0-9 season seems highly likely.  

Linfield vs Pudget Sound Preview...

          After going undefeated in arguably the toughest opening stretch of seven games in school history, Linfield looks to wind down their season with a pair of easy wins against the two weakest teams on their schedule, starting with Pudget Sound.  For the Loggers, they are desperate to put an end to their 17-game losing streak.  For them, beating a top-5 team would be the perfect way to do it. 

                

          The third-ranked Linfield Wildcats travel to Tacoma, Washing ton to take on the winless Pudget Sound Loggers in the battle between the best and worst team in the Northwest conference.  Linfield is 7-0 on the season, 4-0 in conference play.  Pudget Sound is 0-7 on the year, 0-4 in NWC play. 

                

          Linfield’s offense comes into the game playing at their optimum capacity, blowing away teams for the past month with their high-octane, no-huddle spread offense.  The ‘Cat Attack enters the contest averaging 43.6 points and 454.3 yards of offense per game, which ranks first and second in the NWC respectively.  Leading the Wildcats is quarterback Mickey Inns, who has been on a major roll in Linfield’s past three games.  On the season, Inns is completing 57.9 percent of his passes for 1,742 yards and 20 touchdowns with five interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 143.97.  Charlie Poppen leads the receiving core with 29 receptions for 466 yards and five touchdowns.  Lucas Jepson has 28 receptions for 402 yards and three touchdowns.  Deidre Weirsma has 29 receptions for 267 yards and four touchdowns.  Linfield leads the conference in rushing at 166.9 yards per game, having to use a committee of tailbacks since Josh Hill got hurt early in the season.

                

          The Pudget Sound defense enters the contest with perhaps the worst defense that this blogger has ever seen.  The loggers give up 52.6 points and 536.4 yards per game, both ranking last in the NWC by a large landslide.  The loggers allow 298.7 yards per game on the ground, which is also the worst in the NWC.  All season-long, teams have been able to do whatever they wanted offensively against the Loggers defense, and Linfield is the best offense that UPS has faced all season. 

                

          On the offensive side of the ball, the Loggers average 22 points and 381.7 yards of offense per game, ranking last and sixth in the NWC respectively.  The strength of the Loggers team is passing the ball, as the Loggers average 286.7 yards passing.  Quarterback Brayden Foley leads the offense, completing 53.1 percent of his passes for 1,629 yards and 14 touchdowns with 15 interceptions.  Pudget Sound’s greatest weapon, however, is wide receiver Adam Kniffin, one of the best in the nation.  Kniffin has 55 receptions for 837 yards and 11 touchdowns on the season.  Pudget Sound averages 95 yards per game on the ground, worst in the NWC, but freshman running back Austin Wagner ran for 105 yards on 17 carries against Pacific Lutheran’s tough defense in the Boxers’ 41-14 loss to the Lutes last week, giving the Loggers one more weapon to throw at the Wildcat defense.

                

          On the other side of the line, Linfield’s defense comes into the game on as much of a tear as the Wildcats offense has been on in the last three games.  On the season, the Wildcats are giving up 17.4 points and 295.6 yards per game, both leading the conference.  The Wildcats also lead the conference in quarterback sacks and tackles for loss.  With the Loggers offense being the lowest-scoring unit in the northwest conference, Linfield’s defense will have a chance to continue their hot streak. 

Keys to the game for Linfield:

-get off to a fast start:  Getting off quickly has not been a problem for Linfield in their past three games, but against a horrible team like pudget sound, starting fast prevents them from gaining any confidence and beliefs of an upset. 

-limit turnovers and penalties:  If the ‘Cat Attack can limit their penalties and turnovers like they have been in the past three games, another big offensive day should follow suit.

-get after it on defense:  UPS enters the game with the worst offensive line in the conference, while Linfield has the best defensive front seven; if the Wildcats get after it, US will have a miserable day.

Keys to the game for Pudget Sound:

-pray:  Who are we kidding?  The loggers have no shot whatsoever of winning this game unless McMinnville high school takes the field instead of the Wildcats.  Linfield’s way more talented on both sides of the ball, and the Linfield coaching staff has been on top of their game for the past month.               

Link to Joseph Smith's thoughts on Pudget Sound:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XADmX1ZzcWo&feature=youtu.be

What We learned About Linfield In Week 9...

Linfield Is One Of The Best-Conditioned Teams In The Nation:  The Linfield offense has shown in their last three games that when they minimize penalties and turnovers, they play at a tempo that nobody in the conference can match.  In their past three games, the Wildcats are averaging 54 points and 489.7 yards of offense per game.  Whitworth, Lewis & Clark, and even the fast-paced Willamette Bearcats all broke down on defense as the game wore along, Linfield's tempo and pace proving too fast for them.    

The Defense Is Scary:  After the first four games, Linfield's defense was putting up respectable numbers, but also was showing weakness against some of the top offenses in the country.  In their last three games, the Linfield defense is giving up 8 points and 180 yards of offense per game.  On the season, Linfield is giving up 17.4 points and 295.6 yards of offense per game, both ranking first in the NWC.  The Wildcats also lead the NWC in quarterback sacks and tackles for loss.  While Linfield isn't terrible good at forcing turnovers this season compared to the past three seasons, these Wildcats simply don't give up much of anything.     

The NWC Is All Linfield's:  Earlier in the season, I thought that the NWC had a handful of teams capable of dethroning Linfield, and after the PLU game, Linfield seemed like a vulnerable team.  Three games later, while I still believe that the NWC is as tough as it's been in a long time, Linfield has proven that they're a better team than last year.  Having beaten Whitworth, Lewis & Clark, and Willamette by a combined score of 162-24, it's become increasingly clear that Linfield is in a class of their own, and seem more capable of winning the national title than last season.    

W-cats Blow B-cats Away 45-10...

          For two and half quarters, Linfield and Willamette were living up to the hype of the Northwest Conference game of the year.  The game was tied midway through the third quarter, both teams were struggling to establish an offensive rhythm, and the Wildcats appeared to be getting their toughest test in a month.

                

          Then, after scoring three touchdowns in a span of two and a half minutes, the game was over, and the Wildcats turned the Northwest conference game of the year into another blowout win, like they did last year against Lewis & Clark. 

                

          The third-ranked Linfield Wildcats defeated the Willamette Bearcats 45-10 on a rainy afternoon at Maxwell Field.  The win pushed Linfield to 7-0 on the season, and 4-0 in conference play.  The loss dropped Willamette to 6-2 on the season, 2-2 in NWC play.

                

          “I think you felt a lot of teams in our conference wanting to exert themselves, to kind of take the ‘big-kid-on-the-block’ status, and our guys aren’t looking to give that up anytime soon, so I think there’s a little bit of a statement that they wanted to make a little bit to some of these contenders,” Linfield coach Joseph Smith said.    

                

          Linfield’s offense faced a stern test from the Bearcat defense in the first half, but wore on them as the game went on, breaking down the Bearcats in the second half with their fast tempo and explosive playmaking abilities.  The ‘Cat Attack posted 371 yards of offense for the game, including 239 yards in the second half, when they outscored Willamette 35-0.  Mickey Inns had a stellar day in the rain, going 17-31 for 229 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions.  Charlie Poppen led all receivers with 95 yards and two touchdowns on five receptions.  Lucas Jepson added 87 yards on five receptions.  John Shaffer led all rushers with 53 yards on 21 carries.

                

          “They were a good defense, and we knew going in that it would be a difficult day,” Smith said.  “I have a lot of respect for Willamette’s defense; a lot of seniors on that group and some very fine players.  They were able to take away our running back; I was a little stubborn in the first half trying to keep that going.  In reality, I kinda got mad that we couldn’t run, I kept trying to run, and finally in the second half, I said ‘alright fine, we’ll throw the ball.’  Mickey made them pay.” 

                

          Willamette’s offense came into the game averaging 42.3 points and 540 yards of offense per game, including a nation-leading 384 yards per game through the air.  They appeared poised to give Linfield’s defense the biggest challenge that they’ve ever had to face from a conference opponent in the Joseph Smith era, but instead we saw Linfield put forth arguably their best defensive performance of the season.  The Bearcats were held to a season-low 108 yards of offense, which included a season-low 12 yards rushing.  Quarterback Josh Dean, having the best statistical season in Willamette History, had his worst day of the season, going 13-30 for 96 yards and no touchdowns with two interceptions.  Dean was also sacked seven times as Linfield’s front seven ate alive Willamette’s offensive line.

                

          “I think they were leading the country in passing,” Smith said in reference to Willamette’s 108 yards of total offense.  “I don’t know if the Hardin-Simmons game affects all that stuff, but yeah, that’s quite a significant reduction.”        

                

          The first half didn’t see a lot of fireworks as both defenses did a good job of locking down the offense.  Josh Yoder scored on a 1-yard touchdown run to make it 7-0 Linfield with 6:45 to go in the first quarter.  Following a Linfield blocked punt, Dean scored on a 14 yard touchdown run to tie the game up at 7 with 12:40 to go in the second quarter.  Linfield fumbled the ball away on their 11-yard line, and Willamette tacked on a 28-yard field goal to make it 10-7 with 10:04 to go in the second quarter.  Josh Kay tacked on a 34-yard field goal on Linfield’s next possession to tie the game at 10 with 8:04 to go in the second quarter.

                

          “The blocked punt, and certainly the fumble that we had, those are pivotal plays that gave them life, and that’s really the only reason that they scored,” Smith said.  “I was really proud of how we responded.  It was good for us to have that adversity, good for us to have to play in that condition, and I’m just proud of how out guys played, battled, and executed under pressure.”     

                

          Midway through the third quarter, the Wildcats made their move.  Inns threw a five-yard touchdown pass to Deidre Weirsma to make the score 17-10 with 8:19 to go in the third quarter.  On Willamette’s next possession, Linfield’s Colin Forman blocked a Willamette punt and recovered it in the end zone to push Linfield’s lead to 24-10 with 6:07 left in the third quarter.  On their next possession, Dean’s pass was picked off by Kyle Wright.  On the next play, Inns connected with Poppen on a 38-yard pass for a touchdown, making the score 31-10 with 5:43 to go in the third quarter.

                

          Inns connected with Poppen on a three-yard touchdown pass to make the score 38-10 with 14:41 left in the fourth quarter, capping a 10 play, 50 yard drive that took 4:35 off the clock.  Mikkel Smythe added a two-yard touchdown run to make the score 45-10 with 6:31 to go in the game.         

          Linfield’s next game is against Pudget Sound, who’s coming off a 41-14 loss to Pacific Lutheran on Saturday.  The loggers lost to Linfield at Maxwell Field 73-7 last season, and at y Baker Stadium in 2010 by a score of 55-14.

                

          The Bearcat’s next game is against Pacific, who is coming off a 42-20 victory over Lewis & Clark.  Willamette defeated the Boxers 51-17 earlier in the season in a non-conference game.  

Link to Postgame analysis video:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RpUreaYQWhM  

Link to Instant analysis:  http://wildcatspread40.blogspot.com/2012/10/linfield-vs-willamette-instant-analysis.html

Link to Boxscore:  http://www.linfield.edu/sports/stats/fb/wu1027.htm